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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement wins the prize. However, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the greatest upset.

But the current race is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and recent underperformers ascending in unison. During an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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