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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the country's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd