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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept troops from NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.